CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T20:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-03T20:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33733/-1
CME Note: PRELIMINARY: CME with an auriform presentation in both the outline of its bulk and shock, seen to the west in SOHO. Associated with a strong eruption from AR3843 near S10W50 following an M6.7-class flare; an EUV wave is seen in SDO 193 and GOES 284. May potentially have arrived as a magnetic field enhancement near 2024-10-07T22:12Z embedded in ongoing arrival signature which started 2024-10-06; further analysis of this event is currently ongoing.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-07T22:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T07:18Z (-13.9h, +13.9h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: IZMIRAN
Prediction Method Note:
Initial CME velocity = 800 km/s Background SW velocity = 500 km/s Heliolongitude = 45 deg Predicted transit time = 58.7 ± 13.9 h Predicted Vmax = 575.4 ± 109.8 km/sLead Time: 85.95 hour(s)
Difference: 38.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) on 2024-10-04T08:15Z
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